Tuesday, August 22, 2006


It kinda reminds me of the passage where Jesus curses the fig tree because it wasn't bearing any fruit. Not that I think Jesus has cursed the liberals, but they have cursed themselves by not having children. When the selfishness gets to a point where they won't even bear children, their family tree gets pruned a bit too close to the ground.
Arthur Brooks writes about this Fertility Gap in the Opinion Journal.
But the data on young Americans tell a different story. Simply put, liberals have a big baby problem: They're not having enough of them, they haven't for a long time, and their pool of potential new voters is suffering as a result. According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections. Over the past 30 years this gap has not been below 20%--explaining, to a large extent, the current ineffectiveness of liberal youth voter campaigns today.
Alarmingly for the Democrats, the gap is widening at a bit more than half a percentage point per year, meaning that today's problem is nothing compared to what the future will most likely hold. Consider future presidential elections in a swing state (like Ohio), and assume that the current patterns in fertility continue. A state that was split 50-50 between left and right in 2004 will tilt right by 2012, 54% to 46%. By 2020, it will be certifiably right-wing, 59% to 41%. A state that is currently 55-45 in favor of liberals (like California) will be 54-46 in favor of conservatives by 2020--and all for no other reason than babies.
If his sources and math are correct, my prediction that the liberals are contracepting and aborting themselves out of existence, will come sooner than I thought. At least in regards to politics.
Democratic politicians may have no more babies left to kiss.
The cultural war will soon have shifted its balance. And as the song goes, "If your heart turns to a counting of the battle, don't forget these soldiers small, the ones that look like you." (Marie Bellet, Daddy's Song)

Tip to Kathy at relapsed catholic

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